Donald Trump has plunged the transatlantic alliance between the United States and Europe into existential crisis. His resolve to end the Ukraine war, apparently by whatever means necessary — and his characterisation of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator”, have underscored the fragility of diplomatic norms in the MAGA era. It is in this maelstrom of international disorder, that UK prime minister Keir Starmer will seek to remind the White House of the efficacy and necessity of multilateral action this week.
Starmer’s challenge, which he shares with French president Emmanuel Macron, is stark. In a phone call ahead of their trips to Washington DC, the two European allies recommitted themselves to the cause of Ukraine and the need to “show united leadership”. But the rules that once demarcated the bounds of diplomatic acceptability lay in tatters across the Oval Office floor. Starmer and Macron, patrons of the old order, must now reconstruct themselves — before entering the court of the king of the new.
No level of wargaming can account for the US president’s brazen unpredictability — especially when the cameras are fixed to him. Both Macron and Starmer’s visits are expected to conclude with press conferences. Success, or failure, will be immediately apparent.
Messrs Starmer and Macron go to Washington with a fixed message, that said. The UK prime minister will reiterate, in both private and public settings, that British troops are prepared to join a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. But he will also be clear that to prevent Vladimir Putin from reinvading Ukraine, or other countries, there has to be a US security guarantee as well.
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Above all else, this is the point Macron and Starmer plan to move Trump on.
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The clarity of this message demands intricate diplomacy. Trump does not respond well to perceived slights — no matter the intention. Macron and Starmer must persuade the US president in a way he can sell, to his political base and base instincts, as a personal victory. In the black-and-white, zero-sum world of MAGA diplomacy, individuals are divided between “winners” and “losers”. A tête-à-tête fits this dichotomy exactly. And lest we forget: the UK’s prime minister, according to the Trump worldview, is a relative minnow. The US president respects Putin because he sees him as an equal. In Washington, Starmer’s rhetoric of persuasion will be vying with Trump’s very psychology.
As part of his preparation, Starmer has learnt to speak the language of the US president to ensure a level exchange. The PM has vowed, in line with Trump’s repeat requests, that the UK will step up its support for Ukraine and boost defence spending. He has called on European allies to do the same.
Even more interestingly, the prime minister told the Scottish Labour Partyconference on Sunday that “peace only comes through strength”. The comment was a direct invocation of the central tenet of Trump’s brand of foreign policy.
The prime minister repeated this point in his address to a special summit in Kyiv today, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Addressing the meeting of thirteen world leaders via video link, he urged allies to “bring our collective strength to the peace effort.”
He added: “President Trump has changed the global conversation over the last few weeks. And it has created an opportunity. Now, we must get the fundamentals right.”
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By stressing points of emergent consensus between the UK and US, Starmer has in effect confirmed he will head to Washington to praise Trump — not bury him. Speaking the same language of power and strength, the prime minister has concluded, will allow for a good-faith conversation about the United States’ role as a security guarantor in Ukraine.
It was therefore no accident that Starmer followed his praise this morning with a direct plea to the White House. The prime minister declared: “If we want peace to endure, Ukraine must have a seat at the table. And any settlement must be based on a sovereign Ukraine.
“Backed up with strong security guarantees. The UK is ready and willing to support this with troops on the ground — with other Europeans, and with the right conditions in place.
“And ultimately a US backstop will be vital to deter Russia from launching another invasion in just a few years’ time.”
Within government, a maxim has emerged to help officials navigate Trump’s wild pronouncements: it matters not what the US president says; what matters is what he does. This week will mark a profound test of this adage, as Starmer hopes to steer the US president away from the propagandistic influence of Putin — before their axis begins to define Trump’s actions.
The prime minister’s approach to Ukraine is defined by a genuine moral steadfastness. He believes a sell-out, orchestrated by Putin and Trump, would be wrong in principle — not merely in terms of the practical danger it would inflict on the European continent. In Washington DC however, Starmer’s moral clarity will find itself in conflict with diplomatic possibility: the PM believes that provoking Trump would set his and Europe’s cause back.
And so Starmer’s mission demands the utmost delicacy. He well knows what is at stake.
Lunchtime briefing
Donald Trump’s demand for Ukraine minerals is ‘reasonable’, says Boris Johnson
Lunchtime soundbite
‘Today Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison.
The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place.
We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately so a by-election can be held.’
— Zia Yusuf, the Reform UK chair, challenges Mike Amesbury to resign as MP for Runcorn and Helsby, which would avoid the need for opponents to collect signatures on a recall petition to enable a by-election to take place.
Now try this…
‘What’s next after Merz’s conservatives win German election’
Far right comes second, getting best result in a postwar national vote in Germany, sending shock waves across Europe, Politico reports.
‘Zelensky says ready to quit if it brings peace, pushes back on US demand for Ukrainian minerals’
Via CNN.
‘MP Mike Amesbury sentenced to 10 weeks in prison for assault’
The Guardian reports.
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