If there was ever a story that stands taller than Westminster’s towering walls, this would be it: Donald Trump has ordered the US administration to suspend all military aid to Ukraine.
In the most troubling development since Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s White House meeting on *checks notes* Friday, it was announced overnight that the US will forsake Ukraine as it escalates attempts to impose an unconditional ceasefire.
“President [Trump] has been clear that he is focused on peace”, the relevant White House statement reads. “We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”
The missive came alongside a fresh attack on Zelenskyy by Trump. The Ukrainian president “won’t be around very long” if he does not commit to a ceasefire soon, his US counterpart declared.
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The development is so extraordinary that Graham Stuart, a serving Tory MP and former Foreign Office minister, has said it is time to consider the “possibility” that the US president is a Kremlin asset. The comment serves as a marked sign of the times.
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The Westminster frame of partisan competition, it is often remarked, can distort just as much as it reveals. The reality of our new diplomatic disorder, in several crucial senses, is a case in point. But the prevalent pattern that sees the latest Trump pronouncement interpreted and responded to by interested political actors — one by one — is proving immensely instructive. Statement by statement, press release by press release, a stark picture is being formed of the fault lines that will define this parliament.
The UK government’s delicate balancing act, as the mediator between Trump’s America and Europe, is facing daily stress tests. The figurative “bridge”, only weeks after it was unveiled by Downing Street briefers, is quaking as the tectonic plates of geopolitics shift. Keir Starmer has little trouble sauntering to the US side, as last week’s visit proved — but he has so far proved unable to coax the Trump administration in the European direction. Starmer’s strategic construction looks less sturdy every news cycle.
The Liberal Democrats, as I have commented before, are confidently exploring the political space it has spent the Trump 2.0 era cleaving: Sir Ed Davey is the UK’s anti-Trumper-in-chief. The Conservative Party is coming to terms with its role somewhat less self-assuredly. Still, the Tories have in recent days issued statements generally condemning Trump’s Ukraine initiative.
But by far the most interesting case is that of Reform UK.
The party has shown such strategic confusion in recent weeks that commentators are busily rethinking the myths that drive it: namely, that Nigel Farage — politically invulnerable and electorally insurgent — is on an inexorable march to Downing Street.
In the House of Commons yesterday, Farage could hardly have looked more uncomfortable as he responded to the prime minister’s statement on his diplomatic efforts. His ostensible question concerned US security guarantees, and specifically whether a Trump-Ukraine raw materials deal can provide requisite protection.
Had Farage been paying attention to the prime minister’s commentary in recent days, he might have predicted his answer. “The minerals deal is not enough on its own”, Starmer replied.
But media attention focused on his follow-up: “But can I just remind him? Russia is the aggressor and Zelenskyy is a war leader whose country has been invaded. We should all be supporting him and not fawning over [Vladimir] Putin.”
Farage nodded in agreement as the prime minister launched into his answer. But his populist facade of self-importance had been shattered. Starmer, the Labour roar suggested, had struck the right tone.
That morning, Farage suggested Volodymyr Zelenskyy was “rude” and “very unwise” in his now-infamous White House meeting with Trump. In an X post over the weekend, published several hours after other political leaders had opined, the Reform chief labelled the spat “regrettable” and warned that the fallout will leave Putin “feeling like the winner”.
But Farage’s remarks in an LBC phone-in Monday were considerably more colourful. Asked if he would treat a guest as Trump did, Farage responded: “I wouldn’t expect a guest to be rude to me in my own house, absolutely not. I would expect a guest to treat me with respect.”
He also echoed MAGA talking points about Zelenskyy’s military-style attire. “Do you know what?”, he began. “If I turned up in the White House, I’d make sure I was wearing a suit and my shoes were cleaned.”
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Those comments were the backdrop to a remarkable intervention from the Conservative Party yesterday morning — remarkable because the Tories under Kemi Badenoch have, thus far, proven conspicuously quiet with regard to Farage’s antics. In a statement issued via a CCHQ press release, shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel compared Farage’s stance on Russia to that of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
“For Nigel Farage to sit there pointing the finger at Zelenskyy is both morally wrong and diplomatically counterproductive”, Patel declared. “But sadly, it is not surprising. Like Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Reform UK seems to have history equivocating over Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine.”
There was, of course, the usual Lib Dem rebuke. Ed Davey praised Zelenskyy’s “courage” — comparing it to “Farage’s cowardly approach of licking Trump’s boots.”
But the Patel statement was undoubtedly more significant. The intervention reflects an emergent new flank on the right, as the Conservatives seek to stigmatise Farage’s stance on the Ukraine conflict. It is a canny strategy, if a belated one.
After all, it’s reasonably well-acknowledged that Farage’s stance on the Ukraine conflict is one of the reasons Reform UK remains politically vulnerable. Farage’s insurgency was stalled during the 2024 general election campaign after he suggested the West “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by expanding the European Union and NATO military alliance eastwards. The discourse, at best, distracted from Reform’s central election pitch and, at worst, repelled potential voters.
The Conservative Party therefore, is right to exploit Faragism’s foremost weakness. The question is why it took them so long.
More broadly, there is an interesting conversation to be had around why Farage has not pivoted his party to a clearer pro-Ukraine stance — given the political damage his ambiguity inflicted on Reform last election. Assuming Farage is thinking rationally, there are a few theories.
First, it is possible that Farage privileges his friendship with Trump above the immediate electoral interests of his party. His connection to the MAGA movement affords him significant cultural clout in the US, particularly as a speaker at various pro-Trump conventions. (A cynic would highlight the lucrative nature of this relationship).
In a related political sense, Farage may well fear a backlash (from those who are ardently pro-Trump) if he creates too much distance between Reform and the US president. Perhaps it is the power of Elon Musk, as the ringleader of the ruthless Online Right, that Farage dreads. Musk has previously suggested that Rupert Lowe, the Reform MP for Great Yarmouth, is the future of the party — and Lowe’s energetic engagement with the Online Right since would suggest the praise went straight to his head.
If Farage does have a rival in Reform, it is Lowe. Having recently “democratised” his party by allowing Reform members the power to remove their leader, Farage does have to consider intra-party rivalries. Once again, he is not invincible.
There is also, interestingly, something of a split in Reform over Ukraine. The pressure provided by Lowe is one factor; another is Farage’s friendship with Trump. But it should also be stated that Richard Tice, Reform UK deputy leader, has been a longtime advocate of Ukraine’s cause. Before Farage seized Reform’s reins during the general election, then-leader Tice drove to Ukraine to deliver supplies to the frontline. At the time (January 2024), Tice received some serious stick from Online Right types for the scheme.
And in the House of Commons last week, Tice broke Reform’s parliamentary silence on Ukraine with a speech condemning the “monstrous tyranny of that most evil, evil villain, Putin.”
Right-of-Conservative parties, however small, have tended to schism into factional conflict sooner or later. Perhaps we are witnessing the beginnings of this process in Reform’s five-MP caucus.
But whatever the explanation for Farage’s stance, Reform is exposed in a way we have not seen since the creation of the Brexit Party, its predecessor outfit, in 2018. Starmer — and potentially Badenoch — stand to make progress at its expense.
Lunchtime briefing
Lunchtime soundbite
‘Well, I know JD Vance quite well. I’ve looked at the comments. I don’t think he actually said that.
A lot of people are getting carried away. They’re saying loads of things and getting quite animated. Let’s keep cool heads.
America is our closest ally, and I believe the President Trump and JD Vance want peace. They’re looking after their national interest. We need to do so.’
— Kemi Badenoch defends JD Vance over his comment about “some random country that has not fought a war in 30 or 40 years” not being able to guarantee Ukraine’s security. Via GB News
Now try this…
‘Keir Starmer, unlikely leader of the free world’
The British prime minister has had a shaky start at home — but is winning grudging praise for his response to Trump’s Ukraine pivot, writes Politico’s Esther Webber.
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Via the Guardian.
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Former No 10 adviser to Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak Andrew Gilligan writes for ConservativeHome.
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