Dramatic Showdown: Belmont Stakes 2025 Preview

Kentucky Derby victor Sovereignty deliberately skipped the Preakness Stakes to prepare for the Belmont, opting for a strategic five-week break. This move eliminated any chance of a Triple Crown bid but allows the prominent colt to arrive fresh at Saratoga.

Sovereignty demonstrated his capability on a sloppy Churchill Downs track during his commanding Derby win on May 3, 2025, swinging wide to overtake the then-favorite Journalism.

His trainer, Bill Mott, associated with Godolphin ownership, sees benefits in spacing out races for a horse’s long-term career. Sovereignty, a son of Into Mischief out of a Bernardini mare, possesses a pedigree suggesting both versatility and stamina suitable for the 1 1/4-mile trip.

Journalism, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, surged from five lengths back to win the Preakness despite a rough trip. Favored in both races, he’s now under consideration for the Belmont as trainer Michael McCarthy weighs a quick turnaround.

Journalism’s Preakness win unfolded dramatically on a fast Pimlico surface, posting a final time of 1:55.47. He trailed by several lengths in the stretch before unleashing a potent closing burst. This gritty performance underscored his determination and closing speed, overcoming adversity on the track.

Contesting the Belmont just three weeks after the Preakness and five weeks after the Derby presents a significant physical challenge for Journalism. Successfully navigating three Triple Crown races in such a short span requires exceptional toughness. While his Curlin lineage suggests an ability to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance, the cumulative effect of recent races will be a key factor in his performance if he enters. Journalism holds the position of the second choice in the initial odds at 9-5.

Baeza, half-brother to Mage and Dornoch, finished a fast-closing third in the Derby after trailing in fifteenth. He also placed second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and, like Sovereignty, skipped the Preakness to rest for the Belmont.

The familial connection to a Kentucky Derby winner and a Belmont Stakes winner provides an intriguing storyline. His half-brother Dornoch also rebounded from a less favorable Derby result to triumph in the Belmont the previous year. This family history suggests a potential affinity for the Belmont challenge and the 1 1/4-mile distance.

By bypassing the Preakness, Baeza arrives at Saratoga having last raced on May 3rd, similar to Sovereignty. This rest advantage contrasts with the potential fatigue facing Journalism. His third-place finish in the Derby, earned from a wide draw, indicates his ability to handle a large field and compete at the highest level. Baeza is listed at odds of 7-2. His pedigree, combining McKinzie (a son of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense) with a mare by stamina influence Big Brown, is considered well-suited for the distance.

Rodriguez, the winner of the Wood Memorial (G2), is another contender targeting the Belmont after missing earlier Triple Crown races. He was scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to a bruised foot and was not fully ready for the Preakness.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Rodriguez showcased early speed with a wire-to-wire victory at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial. His form after the layoff is less certain, but his presence adds an element of unpredictability to the field. Rodriguez is listed at 6-1 odds. His return to training suggests he is recovering, but he will need to prove his readiness against fit competition.

Hill Road cemented his status as a potential Belmont starter by capturing New York’s primary prep race, the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct on May 10, 2025. He arrived at the Peter Pan in top form. This victory came after he was forced to miss the Wood Memorial (G2), which might have otherwise put him on the Derby trail, due to a fever.

His powerful closing run in the Peter Pan suggests he is peaking at the opportune moment. Trained by Chad Brown, Hill Road offers a strong local angle to the race. His pedigree includes Quality Road and Lemon Drop Kid, indicating potential stamina. Hill Road’s odds are currently 10-1. His recent prep race success makes him a viable option for exotic wagers.

Several other horses are considered candidates for the Belmont field as the June 1st entry deadline approaches. Heart of Honor, a British invader, finished fifth in the Preakness after encountering trouble at the start. He is listed at 20-1 odds and his pedigree, by Honor A.P., hints at stamina.

Final Gambit, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, remains a possibility but could target the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs instead. Trainer Brad Cox is assessing options for the consistent colt. While Sandman, third in the Preakness, has been mentioned as potentially skipping the Belmont for the Jim Dandy Stakes, he is still listed as a possible starter.

Crudo, a winner of the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard, has also drawn attention as a potential entry with a pedigree suggesting the distance might suit him.

With the Belmont Stakes held at 1¼ miles at Saratoga, the race now mirrors the Derby more than its traditional 1½-mile test—shifting the advantage toward horses with a balance of tactical speed and stamina.

Sovereignty and Baeza arrive fresh from Derby efforts, positioned to capitalize on that rest. Journalism, heroic in the Preakness, remains a fan favorite, though his demanding campaign may test his reserves.

Hill Road, off a sharp prep, and Rodriguez, returning from injury, add intrigue to an already competitive field. The tension between front-runners and deep closers sets the stage for a Belmont that promises both strategy and spectacle.

Sports content writer for World in Sport