Recent polling – with the Conservatives rotating between third and fourth place – shows more than the fact the public do not trust us; it signals a growing risk of political irrelevance.
Post-election, the party has gone through a period of reflection. The pressure from Reform on the right and the Liberal Democrats in the centre has squeezed political space, underscoring the need to reassert Conservative principles with clarity. However, our recent approach to scrutinising Labour risks further alienating the voters we need to return to power.
Framing the EU deal as a “betrayal” exemplifies our disconnection from today’s political reality. Like the US trade deal, the EU reset is a series of small, technical adjustments – on fishing rights, e-gates, youth mobility, and defence cooperation. It was never about sovereignty or revisiting Brexit, and language such as “surrender” risks switching people further off.
Likewise, attacking Labour’s recent immigration proposals in an attempt to outflank Reform is badly timed. Regardless of one’s view on immigration, voters clearly know that successive Conservative governments failed to “take back control” of borders several years after Brexit. David Cameron set the arbitrary target of 100,000 a year – shaping the public’s view of what a normal level of migration would be – and put an albatross around the neck of successive governments.
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If there are signs the public have stopped listening to us, it might be prudent to not focus on a policy where we have no credibility. Bringing up issues where we have a poor track record is like the Lib Dems complaining about higher student loans.
Farage and Reform now dominate the immigration debate, shamelessly conflating legal and illegal migration via Channel crossings for political gain.
That debate often misses the point. Whether it’s 750,000, 500,000 or 200,000 people – building consensus on the right number is futile. Some will never be happy with it. Yet polling shows Britain is not an anti-immigration country – but it is pro-control. That is how politicians can peel away the broader mass of public concern from the hardliners.
Sir Keir Starmer is responding to what the public has been saying – mostly to Conservative governments – for a very long time. Accusing him of his pro-immigration instincts is unfairly reductive, and reckless when anti-establishment rhetoric is on the rise which should require any Prime Minister to be seen to address the issue. The danger is Starmer fails to deliver. We should prepare for when that time comes.
Opposition without a sense of a credible, alternative direction won’t restore trust. We must get back to basics and refocus on areas where we still have credibility: the economy and living standards.
The cost-of-living crisis remains the defining issue for most people. From high personal and business taxes to stifling regulation, workers and employers alike feel squeezed. Several shadow ministers have used their time on the airwaves wisely to raise these issues – it’s now time to bring it all together under a clear, central narrative and ensure we can land these punches properly.
Our economic record, despite its blemishes, is worth defending: sustained GDP growth, deficit reduction, rising real wages, lower personal taxes, the pandemic response through furlough, business incentives for job creation. These achievements resonate with people’s everyday experiences.
Yes, the Truss budget damaged our economic reputation – especially among mortgage holders – but over 14 years, our stewardship of the economy has largely been strong. It remains the one area where voters may still give us a hearing.
Rachel Reeves’s next Budget and the 2026 local elections are key opportunities to present a practical, credible economic vision. So far, that vision is absent – leaving Reform to define the opposition narrative.
Reclaiming the economy as a core issue also gives us a platform to re-engage on topics where our credibility has eroded. Economic policy underpins concerns about immigration, public services, and social cohesion. We should be using every comms opportunity to reiterate the wedge between Labour’s high-tax, anti-business instincts and our pro-growth vision – and expose Reform’s lack of fiscal credibility.
Reform’s manifesto for the last general election was a wish list of uncosted promises, disconnected from the realities of governance. This gives us the opportunity to challenge them, like Labour, where they’re weakest – on economic competence.
We won’t beat Reform by copying their positions on immigration. But we can defeat them on substance. Elections are won on trust, and trust is built through credible plans that address people’s concerns.
As the public feel the gloomy economy, squabbling over the fine print of Starmer’s announcements only helps him spin them as victories. Our best chance of rebuilding trust is to focus on the core issues and show we have a serious plan to address them. It’s still the economy, stupid.
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